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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 14 of 2023

1
TEN28
at
MIA27

MIA peaked at 84% win probability, lost 28–27 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 16%.

84%
Peak WP
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2
MIN3
at
LVR0

LVR peaked at 69% win probability, lost 3–0 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 31%.

69%
Peak WP
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3
DEN24
at
LAC7

LAC peaked at 67% win probability, lost 24–7 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 33%.

67%
Peak WP
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4
GNB22
at
NYG24

GNB peaked at 63% win probability, lost 24–22 to NYG.NYG bottomed out at 37%.

63%
Peak WP
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5
CAR6
at
NOR28

CAR peaked at 49% win probability, lost 28–6 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 51%.

49%
Peak WP
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6
IND14
at
CIN34

IND peaked at 46% win probability, lost 34–14 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 54%.

46%
Peak WP
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7
PHI13
at
DAL33

PHI peaked at 45% win probability, lost 33–13 to DAL.DAL bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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