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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 10 of 2023

1
NYJ12
at
LVR16

NYJ peaked at 80% win probability, lost 16–12 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 20%.

80%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
CAR13
at
CHI16

CAR peaked at 74% win probability, lost 16–13 to CHI.CHI bottomed out at 26%.

74%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
IND10
at
NWE6

NWE peaked at 66% win probability, lost 10–6 to IND.IND bottomed out at 34%.

66%
Peak WP
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4
DEN24
at
BUF22

BUF peaked at 62% win probability, lost 24–22 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
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5
GNB19
at
PIT23

GNB peaked at 61% win probability, lost 23–19 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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6
WAS26
at
SEA29

WAS peaked at 61% win probability, lost 29–26 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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7
NOR19
at
MIN27

NOR peaked at 54% win probability, lost 27–19 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 46%.

54%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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