Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2021 season
MIN peaked at 90% win probability, lost 27–24 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 10%.
WAS peaked at 80% win probability, lost 20–16 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 20%.
NWE peaked at 73% win probability, lost 17–16 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 27%.
NYG peaked at 65% win probability, lost 27–13 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 35%.
TEN peaked at 55% win probability, lost 38–13 to ARI.ARI bottomed out at 45%.
BAL peaked at 52% win probability, lost 33–27 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 48%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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