Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2014 season
KAN peaked at 70% win probability, lost 26–10 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 30%.
BAL peaked at 61% win probability, lost 23–16 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 39%.
GNB peaked at 57% win probability, lost 36–16 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 43%.
IND peaked at 50% win probability, lost 31–24 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 50%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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