Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2006 season
1
HOU peaked at 77% win probability, lost 24–10 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 23%.
77%
Peak WP
2
70%
Peak WP
3
SFO peaked at 63% win probability, lost 34–27 to ARI.ARI bottomed out at 37%.
63%
Peak WP
4
NYG peaked at 61% win probability, lost 26–21 to IND.IND bottomed out at 39%.
61%
Peak WP
5
58%
Peak WP
6
58%
Peak WP
7
58%
Peak WP
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.