Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.
Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
PIT peaked at 98% win probability, lost 34–34 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 2%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
TEN peaked at 98% win probability, lost 31–28 to CLE.CLE bottomed out at 2%.
CHI peaked at 97% win probability, lost 33–30 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 3%.
SFO peaked at 97% win probability, lost 31–20 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 3%.
LAC peaked at 96% win probability, lost 28–24 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 4%.
MIA peaked at 96% win probability, lost 27–24 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 4%.
LAC peaked at 96% win probability, lost 31–28 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 4%.
DET peaked at 96% win probability, lost 20–17 to CHI.CHI bottomed out at 4%.