Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2002 season
ATL peaked at 81% win probability, lost 37–34 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 19%.
TAM peaked at 78% win probability, lost 26–20 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 22%.
NYG peaked at 69% win probability, lost 16–13 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 31%.
PIT peaked at 63% win probability, lost 30–14 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 37%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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