Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins, Week 3 2026

Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q2 · 3:16·KC 14, MIA 7

   (3:16) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis up the middle to KC 28 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Kansas City challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis up the middle to KC 28 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill, 38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-38-L.Sneed at KC 25.

   +13pp

   KAN
2. 2
   Q2 · 2:00·KC 14, MIA 7

   (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 4-R.Rice INTERCEPTED by 10-J.Rodriguez (11-D.Trader) at MIA 29. 10-J.Rodriguez to MIA 47 for 18 yards (1-X.Worthy).

   +12pp

   MIA
3. 3
   Q1 · 14:55·KC 0, MIA 0

   (14:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce to MIA 19 for 48 yards (11-D.Trader).

   +12pp

   KAN