Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, Week 1 2026

Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q3 · 12:53·DEN 7, KC 20

   (12:53) 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +11pp

   KAN
2. 2
   Q3 · 9:47·DEN 7, KC 21

   (9:47) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 1-X.Worthy INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at KC 29. 22-B.Jones to KC 5 for 24 yards (77-J.Moore).

   +8pp

   DEN
3. 3
   Q2 · 8:41·DEN 7, KC 7

   (8:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to KC 35 for 8 yards (99-Z.Allen; 49-A.Singleton).

   +6pp

   KAN
4. 4