Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q1 · 13:36·KC 6, JAX 0

   (13:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +19pp

   KAN
2. 2
   Q3 · 8:59·KC 23, JAX 13

   (8:59) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 27-L.Fournette to KC 26 for no gain (54-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (54-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by KC-21-B.Breeland at KC 26. 21-B.Breeland to KC 40 for 14 yards (12-D.Westbrook).

   +16pp

   KAN
3. 3
   Q1 · 5:31·KC 10, JAX 6

   (5:31) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-D.Chark for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].

   +13pp

   JAX
4. 4
   Q2 · 7:56·KC 20, JAX 10

   (7:56) 15-G.Minshew pass deep middle to 17-D.Chark to KC 6 for 69 yards (35-C.Ward).

   +11pp

   JAX
5. 5
   Q1 · 2:45·KC 16, JAX 7

   (2:45) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +9pp

   KAN