Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q2 · 13:42·DEN 7, NE 6

   (13:42) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 50-R.Ninkovich at DEN 45. 50-R.Ninkovich to DEN 34 for 11 yards (10-E.Sanders). DEN-10-E.Sanders was injured during the play.

   +21pp

   NWE
2. 2
   Q1 · 4:03·DEN 0, NE 3

   (4:03) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Thomas (39-B.Browner). PENALTY on NE-39-B.Browner, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at NE 13 - No Play.

   +9pp

   DEN
3. 3
   Q2 · 8:33·DEN 7, NE 19

   (8:33) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 19, and recovers at DEN 19. 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to NE 16. 11-J.Edelman for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined. NE 11-Edelman 4th career punt return TD, new franchise record.

   +7pp

   NWE
4. 4
   Q1 · 5:43·DEN 0, NE 3

   (5:43) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders to NE 31 for 21 yards (24-D.Revis).

   +7pp

   DEN
5. 5
   Q1 · 1:15·DEN 7, NE 3

   (1:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski to DEN 17 for 11 yards (36-K.Webster) [58-V.Miller].

   +6pp

   NWE