Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 3:48·DEN 21, NE 31

   (3:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-W.McGahee up the middle to NE 11 for 3 yards (50-R.Ninkovich). FUMBLES (50-R.Ninkovich), RECOVERED by NE-96-J.Cunningham at NE 11. 96-J.Cunningham to NE 11 for no gain (74-O.Franklin).

   +11pp

   NWE
2. 2
   Q4 · 4:24·DEN 21, NE 31

   (4:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-D.Thomas to NE 14 for 28 yards (32-D.McCourty).

   +9pp

   DEN
3. 3
   Q2 · 14:15·DEN 0, NE 7

   (14:15) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 87-E.Decker [55-B.Spikes]. PENALTY on NE-32-D.McCourty, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at NE 20 - No Play.

   +7pp

   DEN
4. 4
   Q2 · 3:42·DEN 7, NE 14

   (3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 39-D.Woodhead to NE 36 for 25 yards (20-M.Adams; 51-J.Mays).

   +7pp

   NWE
5. 5
   Q1 · 9:57·DEN 0, NE 0

   (9:57) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 88-D.Thomas to DEN 42 for 15 yards (32-D.McCourty).

   +6pp

   DEN