Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q2 · 5:18·NE 17, DEN 16

   (5:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow up the middle to DEN 46 for no gain (95-M.Anderson). FUMBLES (95-M.Anderson), touched at DEN 42, RECOVERED by NE-95-M.Anderson at DEN 40. 95-M.Anderson to DEN 40 for no gain (19-E.Royal).

   +22pp

   NWE
2. 2
   Q2 · 8:37·NE 14, DEN 16

   (8:37) 35-L.Ball right guard to DEN 25 for 2 yards (97-R.Brace). FUMBLES (97-R.Brace), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.Ninkovich at DEN 19. 50-R.Ninkovich to DEN 19 for no gain (86-D.Fells).

   +21pp

   NWE
3. 3
   Q1 · 9:04·NE 0, DEN 6

   (9:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-A.Hernandez to DEN 33 for 46 yards (25-C.Harris).

   +10pp

   NWE
4. 4
   Q2 · 2:16·NE 17, DEN 16

   (2:16) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 81-A.Hernandez to DEN 6 for 25 yards (52-W.Woodyard).

   +10pp

   NWE
5. 5
   Q1 · 7:30·NE 6, DEN 6

   (7:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 85-C.Ochocinco for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-92-E.Dumervil, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

   +9pp

   NWE