Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q2 · 7:24·NYJ 6, NE 10

   (7:24) 6-C.Hanson punt is BLOCKED by 96-D.Bowens, Center-66-L.Paxton, RECOVERED by NYJ-96-D.Bowens at NE 26. 96-D.Bowens for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. blocked at 30

   +18pp

   NYJ
2. 2
   Q1 · 9:38·NYJ 0, NE 6

   (9:38) 11-K.Clemens pass short left intended for 16-B.Smith INTERCEPTED by 26-E.Wilson [93-R.Seymour] at NYJ 5. 26-E.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-11-K.Clemens was injured during the play. His return is Probable. NE 26-Wilson 21st different Patriot to score a TD in season, tying NFL record (2000 Broncos and 1987 Rams) Patriots now have 510 points for the 2007 season, 8th best all-time. Patriots 66th TD of season, tied with 4 other teams for 3rd most in NFL history.

   +14pp

   NWE
3. 3
   Q2 · 1:54·NYJ 7, NE 10

   (1:54) 7-B.Graham punt is BLOCKED by 15-K.Washington, Center-85-J.Dearth, recovered by NYJ-27-A.Elam at NYJ 5. 27-A.Elam to NYJ 3 for -2 yards (38-K.Eckel). blocked at NYJ 8

   +9pp

   NWE
4. 4
   Q1 · 6:40·NYJ 0, NE 7

   (6:40) NYJ 16-Smith now at QB. 16-B.Smith pass incomplete short right to 86-C.Baker.

   +8pp

   NWE
5. 5
   Q1 · 9:24·NYJ 0, NE 7

   (9:24) NYJ 16-Smith at QB. (Shotgun) 29-L.Washington left tackle pushed ob at NE 25 for 49 yards (22-A.Samuel).

   +8pp

   NYJ