Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q1 · 14:52·IND 0, HOU 6

   4-A.Vinatieri kicks 59 yards from IND 25 to HOU 16. 13-J.Mathis for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +22pp

   HOU
2. 2
   Q1 · 2:15·IND 7, HOU 7

   (2:15) (Run formation) PENALTY on IND-79-R.Brock, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at IND 43 - No Play.

   +13pp

   HOU
3. 3
   Q2 · 13:43·IND 7, HOU 10

   (13:43) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 11-A.Gonzalez to HOU 41 for 24 yards (24-C.Brown).

   +11pp

   IND
4. 4
   Q3 · 5:09·IND 24, HOU 10

   (5:09) 8-M.Schaub pass short middle intended for 83-K.Walter INTERCEPTED by 58-G.Brackett at IND 3. 58-G.Brackett to IND 29 for 26 yards (44-V.Leach).

   +11pp

   IND
5. 5
   Q3 · 10:13·IND 17, HOU 10

   (10:13) 8-M.Schaub pass short middle intended for 12-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 50-R.Boiman at HOU 23. 50-R.Boiman to HOU 21 for 2 yards (69-C.Pitts). Houston challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1.)

   +10pp

   IND