Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.
Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
LAR peaked at 91% win probability, lost 30–26 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 9%.
GNB peaked at 89% win probability, lost 39–22 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 11%.
BAL peaked at 89% win probability, lost 24–17 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 11%.
NOR peaked at 87% win probability, lost 35–27 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 13%.
TAM peaked at 85% win probability, lost 23–19 to CLE.CLE bottomed out at 15%.
JAX peaked at 84% win probability, lost 20–13 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 16%.
NWE peaked at 83% win probability, lost 13–10 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 17%.
LAC peaked at 82% win probability, lost 24–16 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 18%.
DAL peaked at 81% win probability, lost 34–31 to BAL.BAL bottomed out at 19%.