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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 7 of 2025

1
NYG32
at
DEN33

NYG peaked at 99% win probability, lost 33–32 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 1%.

99%
Peak WP
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2
PIT31
at
CIN33

PIT peaked at 76% win probability, lost 33–31 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 24%.

76%
Peak WP
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3
CAR13
at
NYJ6

NYJ peaked at 63% win probability, lost 13–6 to CAR.CAR bottomed out at 37%.

63%
Peak WP
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4
PHI28
at
MIN22

MIN peaked at 61% win probability, lost 28–22 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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5
IND38
at
LAC24

LAC peaked at 57% win probability, lost 38–24 to IND.IND bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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6
HOU19
at
SEA27

HOU peaked at 50% win probability, lost 27–19 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 50%.

50%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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