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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 2 of 2025

1
DEN28
at
IND29

DEN peaked at 86% win probability, lost 29–28 to IND.IND bottomed out at 14%.

86%
Peak WP
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2
SEA31
at
PIT17

PIT peaked at 81% win probability, lost 31–17 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 19%.

81%
Peak WP
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3
NWE33
at
MIA27

MIA peaked at 77% win probability, lost 33–27 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 23%.

77%
Peak WP
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4
PHI20
at
KAN17

KAN peaked at 70% win probability, lost 20–17 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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5
SFO26
at
NOR21

NOR peaked at 65% win probability, lost 26–21 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
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6
ATL22
at
MIN6

MIN peaked at 57% win probability, lost 22–6 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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7
CHI21
at
DET52

CHI peaked at 50% win probability, lost 52–21 to DET.DET bottomed out at 50%.

50%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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