Skip to content

Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 7 of 2024

1
NYJ15
at
PIT37

NYJ peaked at 84% win probability, lost 37–15 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 16%.

84%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
DET31
at
MIN29

MIN peaked at 84% win probability, lost 31–29 to DET.DET bottomed out at 16%.

84%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
MIA10
at
IND16

MIA peaked at 83% win probability, lost 16–10 to IND.IND bottomed out at 17%.

83%
Peak WP
View game flow →
4
DEN33
at
NOR10

NOR peaked at 64% win probability, lost 33–10 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 36%.

64%
Peak WP
View game flow →
5
LVR15
at
LAR20

LVR peaked at 62% win probability, lost 20–15 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
View game flow →
6
SEA34
at
ATL14

ATL peaked at 58% win probability, lost 34–14 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
View game flow →
7
PHI28
at
NYG3

NYG peaked at 58% win probability, lost 28–3 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

Want the raw data behind these reports?

25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.

Browse the Digital Vault