Skip to content

Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 16 of 2024

1
PHI33
at
WAS36

PHI peaked at 93% win probability, lost 36–33 to WAS.WAS bottomed out at 7%.

93%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
DEN27
at
LAC34

DEN peaked at 87% win probability, lost 34–27 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 13%.

87%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
LAR19
at
NYJ9

NYJ peaked at 79% win probability, lost 19–9 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 21%.

79%
Peak WP
View game flow →
4
MIN27
at
SEA24

SEA peaked at 75% win probability, lost 27–24 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 25%.

75%
Peak WP
View game flow →
5
TEN30
at
IND38

TEN peaked at 72% win probability, lost 38–30 to IND.IND bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
View game flow →
6
ARI30
at
CAR36

ARI peaked at 69% win probability, lost 36–30 to CAR.CAR bottomed out at 31%.

69%
Peak WP
View game flow →
7
JAX14
at
LVR19

JAX peaked at 24% win probability, lost 19–14 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 76%.

24%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

Want the raw data behind these reports?

25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.

Browse the Digital Vault