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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 15 of 2024

1
NYJ32
at
JAX25

JAX peaked at 86% win probability, lost 32–25 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 14%.

86%
Peak WP
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2
IND13
at
DEN31

IND peaked at 80% win probability, lost 31–13 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 20%.

80%
Peak WP
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3
DAL30
at
CAR14

CAR peaked at 72% win probability, lost 30–14 to DAL.DAL bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
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4
GNB30
at
SEA13

SEA peaked at 57% win probability, lost 30–13 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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5
PIT13
at
PHI27

PIT peaked at 49% win probability, lost 27–13 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 51%.

49%
Peak WP
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6
CHI12
at
MIN30

CHI peaked at 44% win probability, lost 30–12 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 56%.

44%
Peak WP
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7
ATL15
at
LVR9

LVR peaked at 30% win probability, lost 15–9 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 70%.

30%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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