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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 13 of 2024

1
SEA26
at
NYJ21

NYJ peaked at 93% win probability, lost 26–21 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 7%.

93%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
ARI22
at
MIN23

ARI peaked at 89% win probability, lost 23–22 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 11%.

89%
Peak WP
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3
PHI24
at
BAL19

BAL peaked at 85% win probability, lost 24–19 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 15%.

85%
Peak WP
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4
TAM26
at
CAR23

CAR peaked at 83% win probability, lost 26–23 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 17%.

83%
Peak WP
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5
IND25
at
NWE24

NWE peaked at 76% win probability, lost 25–24 to IND.IND bottomed out at 24%.

76%
Peak WP
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6
CLE32
at
DEN41

CLE peaked at 65% win probability, lost 41–32 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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