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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 11 of 2024

1
IND28
at
NYJ27

NYJ peaked at 85% win probability, lost 28–27 to IND.IND bottomed out at 15%.

85%
Peak WP
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2
SEA20
at
SFO17

SFO peaked at 84% win probability, lost 20–17 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 16%.

84%
Peak WP
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3
WAS18
at
PHI26

WAS peaked at 79% win probability, lost 26–18 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 21%.

79%
Peak WP
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4
MIN23
at
TEN13

TEN peaked at 68% win probability, lost 23–13 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 32%.

68%
Peak WP
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5
ATL6
at
DEN38

ATL peaked at 50% win probability, lost 38–6 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 50%.

50%
Peak WP
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6
JAX6
at
DET52

JAX peaked at 49% win probability, lost 52–6 to DET.DET bottomed out at 51%.

49%
Peak WP
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7
LVR19
at
MIA34

LVR peaked at 48% win probability, lost 34–19 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 52%.

48%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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