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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 10 of 2024

1
DET26
at
HOU23

HOU peaked at 87% win probability, lost 26–23 to DET.DET bottomed out at 13%.

87%
Peak WP
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2
DEN14
at
KAN16

DEN peaked at 78% win probability, lost 16–14 to KAN.KAN bottomed out at 22%.

78%
Peak WP
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3
MIN12
at
JAX7

JAX peaked at 72% win probability, lost 12–7 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
View game flow →
4
BUF30
at
IND20

IND peaked at 71% win probability, lost 30–20 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 29%.

71%
Peak WP
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5
PHI34
at
DAL6

DAL peaked at 56% win probability, lost 34–6 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 44%.

56%
Peak WP
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6
NYJ6
at
ARI31

NYJ peaked at 47% win probability, lost 31–6 to ARI.ARI bottomed out at 53%.

47%
Peak WP
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7
ATL17
at
NOR20

ATL peaked at 46% win probability, lost 20–17 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 54%.

46%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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