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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 2 of 2023

1
WAS35
at
DEN33

DEN peaked at 96% win probability, lost 35–33 to WAS.WAS bottomed out at 4%.

96%
Peak WP
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2
GNB24
at
ATL25

GNB peaked at 89% win probability, lost 25–24 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 11%.

89%
Peak WP
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3
NOR20
at
CAR17

CAR peaked at 68% win probability, lost 20–17 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 32%.

68%
Peak WP
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4
MIN28
at
PHI34

MIN peaked at 61% win probability, lost 34–28 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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5
IND31
at
HOU20

HOU peaked at 57% win probability, lost 31–20 to IND.IND bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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6
NYJ10
at
DAL30

NYJ peaked at 46% win probability, lost 30–10 to DAL.DAL bottomed out at 54%.

46%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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