Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q2 · 15:00·KC 0, JAX 0

   (15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-15-T.Jones at KC 17.

   +15pp

   JAX
2. 2
   Q2 · 10:57·KC 0, JAX 3

   (10:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 39-J.Agnew. Kansas City challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 43, touched at KC 42, RECOVERED by KC-38-L.Sneed at KC 43. 38-L.Sneed to KC 43 for no gain (39-J.Agnew).

   +14pp

   KAN
3. 3
   Q3 · 13:35·KC 7, JAX 6

   (13:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson to JAX 16 for 34 yards (37-T.Herndon).

   +11pp

   KAN
4. 4
   Q2 · 0:30·KC 6, JAX 3

   (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-S.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

   +10pp

   KAN
5. 5
   Q4 · 14:53·KC 14, JAX 6

   (14:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on KC-20-J.Reid, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at KC 11 - No Play.

   +10pp

   JAX