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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 16 of 2023

1
NWE26
at
DEN23

DEN peaked at 80% win probability, lost 26–23 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 20%.

80%
Peak WP
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2
LVR20
at
KAN14

KAN peaked at 65% win probability, lost 20–14 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
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3
IND10
at
ATL29

IND peaked at 62% win probability, lost 29–10 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
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4
DAL20
at
MIA22

DAL peaked at 61% win probability, lost 22–20 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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5
GNB33
at
CAR30

CAR peaked at 56% win probability, lost 33–30 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 44%.

56%
Peak WP
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6
NOR22
at
LAR30

NOR peaked at 53% win probability, lost 30–22 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 47%.

53%
Peak WP
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7
NYG25
at
PHI33

NYG peaked at 43% win probability, lost 33–25 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 57%.

43%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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