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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 15 of 2023

1
PHI17
at
SEA20

PHI peaked at 85% win probability, lost 20–17 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 15%.

85%
Peak WP
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2
PIT13
at
IND30

PIT peaked at 82% win probability, lost 30–13 to IND.IND bottomed out at 18%.

82%
Peak WP
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3
ATL7
at
CAR9

ATL peaked at 75% win probability, lost 9–7 to CAR.CAR bottomed out at 25%.

75%
Peak WP
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4
TAM34
at
GNB20

GNB peaked at 68% win probability, lost 34–20 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 32%.

68%
Peak WP
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5
DEN17
at
DET42

DEN peaked at 62% win probability, lost 42–17 to DET.DET bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
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6
NYG6
at
NOR24

NYG peaked at 55% win probability, lost 24–6 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 45%.

55%
Peak WP
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7
LAC21
at
LVR63

LAC peaked at 44% win probability, lost 63–21 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 56%.

44%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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