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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 13 of 2023

1
SFO42
at
PHI19

PHI peaked at 75% win probability, lost 42–19 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 25%.

75%
Peak WP
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2
IND31
at
TEN28

TEN peaked at 70% win probability, lost 31–28 to IND.IND bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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3
DET33
at
NOR28

NOR peaked at 60% win probability, lost 33–28 to DET.DET bottomed out at 40%.

60%
Peak WP
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4
MIA45
at
WAS15

WAS peaked at 58% win probability, lost 45–15 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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5
CAR18
at
TAM21

CAR peaked at 57% win probability, lost 21–18 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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6
DEN17
at
HOU22

DEN peaked at 51% win probability, lost 22–17 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 49%.

51%
Peak WP
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7
KAN19
at
GNB27

KAN peaked at 45% win probability, lost 27–19 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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