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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 11 of 2023

1
PHI21
at
KAN17

KAN peaked at 89% win probability, lost 21–17 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 11%.

89%
Peak WP
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2
MIN20
at
DEN21

MIN peaked at 87% win probability, lost 21–20 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 13%.

87%
Peak WP
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3
LAC20
at
GNB23

LAC peaked at 80% win probability, lost 23–20 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 20%.

80%
Peak WP
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4
DAL33
at
CAR10

CAR peaked at 67% win probability, lost 33–10 to DAL.DAL bottomed out at 33%.

67%
Peak WP
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5
LVR13
at
MIA20

LVR peaked at 56% win probability, lost 20–13 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 44%.

56%
Peak WP
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6
PIT10
at
CLE13

PIT peaked at 50% win probability, lost 13–10 to CLE.CLE bottomed out at 50%.

50%
Peak WP
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7
NYJ6
at
BUF32

NYJ peaked at 43% win probability, lost 32–6 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 57%.

43%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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