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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 1 of 2023

1
BUF16
at
NYJ22

BUF peaked at 89% win probability, lost 22–16 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 11%.

89%
Peak WP
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2
LVR17
at
DEN16

DEN peaked at 85% win probability, lost 17–16 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 15%.

85%
Peak WP
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3
MIA36
at
LAC34

LAC peaked at 84% win probability, lost 36–34 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 16%.

84%
Peak WP
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4
CAR10
at
ATL24

CAR peaked at 63% win probability, lost 24–10 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 37%.

63%
Peak WP
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5
PHI25
at
NWE20

NWE peaked at 58% win probability, lost 25–20 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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6
GNB38
at
CHI20

CHI peaked at 56% win probability, lost 38–20 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 44%.

56%
Peak WP
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7
JAX31
at
IND21

IND peaked at 55% win probability, lost 31–21 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 45%.

55%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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