Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2020 season
DEN peaked at 81% win probability, lost 16–14 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 19%.
CIN peaked at 80% win probability, lost 16–13 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 20%.
TAM peaked at 71% win probability, lost 34–23 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 29%.
MIN peaked at 70% win probability, lost 43–34 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 30%.
CAR peaked at 70% win probability, lost 34–30 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 30%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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