Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2009 season
CHI peaked at 69% win probability, lost 21–15 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 31%.
CLE peaked at 68% win probability, lost 34–20 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 32%.
TEN peaked at 63% win probability, lost 13–10 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 37%.
WAS peaked at 52% win probability, lost 23–17 to NYG.NYG bottomed out at 48%.
DET peaked at 46% win probability, lost 45–27 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 54%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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