Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2007 season
1
JAX peaked at 83% win probability, lost 13–10 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 17%.
83%
Peak WP
2
ARI peaked at 80% win probability, lost 20–17 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 20%.
80%
Peak WP
3
71%
Peak WP
4
68%
Peak WP
5
NOR peaked at 67% win probability, lost 41–10 to IND.IND bottomed out at 33%.
67%
Peak WP
6
62%
Peak WP
7
55%
Peak WP
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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