Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2005 season
MIN peaked at 79% win probability, lost 24–13 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 21%.
ARI peaked at 79% win probability, lost 42–19 to NYG.NYG bottomed out at 21%.
CAR peaked at 66% win probability, lost 23–20 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 34%.
LVR peaked at 62% win probability, lost 30–20 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 38%.
SEA peaked at 54% win probability, lost 26–14 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 46%.
PHI peaked at 53% win probability, lost 14–10 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 47%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.