Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2004 season
SFO peaked at 72% win probability, lost 21–19 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 28%.
CAR peaked at 70% win probability, lost 24–14 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 30%.
NYG peaked at 63% win probability, lost 31–17 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 37%.
LVR peaked at 48% win probability, lost 24–21 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 52%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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