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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

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Top 10 of the 2001 season

1
PIT3
at
JAX21
Wk 1 · 2001

PIT peaked at 100% win probability, lost 21–3 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 0%.

100%
Peak WP
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2
NOR24
at
BUF6
Wk 1 · 2001

BUF peaked at 77% win probability, lost 24–6 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 23%.

77%
Peak WP
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3
TAM10
at
DAL6
Wk 1 · 2001

DAL peaked at 74% win probability, lost 10–6 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 26%.

74%
Peak WP
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4
IND45
at
NYJ24
Wk 1 · 2001

NYJ peaked at 71% win probability, lost 45–24 to IND.IND bottomed out at 29%.

71%
Peak WP
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5
CHI6
at
BAL17
Wk 1 · 2001

CHI peaked at 68% win probability, lost 17–6 to BAL.BAL bottomed out at 32%.

68%
Peak WP
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6
NYG20
at
DEN31
Wk 1 · 2001

NYG peaked at 54% win probability, lost 31–20 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 46%.

54%
Peak WP
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7
DET6
at
GNB28
Wk 1 · 2001

DET peaked at 44% win probability, lost 28–6 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 56%.

44%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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