Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.
Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
CLE peaked at 100% win probability, lost 27–21 to CHI.CHI bottomed out at 0%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
PIT peaked at 99% win probability, lost 26–23 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 1%.
TAM peaked at 95% win probability, lost 17–13 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 5%.
CAR peaked at 95% win probability, lost 25–22 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 5%.
TEN peaked at 94% win probability, lost 41–38 to CLE.CLE bottomed out at 6%.
NYJ peaked at 93% win probability, lost 17–16 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 7%.