Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 9:34·BUF 20, NYJ 26

   (9:34) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 10-S.Holmes for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +28pp

   NYJ
2. 2
   Q4 · 10:47·BUF 18, NYJ 20

   (10:47) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass short left to 84-S.Chandler for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +16pp

   BUF
3. 3
   Q2 · 13:40·BUF 3, NYJ 7

   (13:40) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 10-S.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Leonhard at 50. 35-J.Leonhard to NYJ 36 for 14 yards (74-N.Mangold; 60-D.Ferguson). PENALTY on NYJ-62-V.Ducasse, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 36.

   +14pp

   BUF
4. 4
   Q2 · 7:06·BUF 6, NYJ 13

   (7:06) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 84-S.Hill for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Williams].

   +13pp

   NYJ
5. 5
   Q1 · 14:00·BUF 0, NYJ 0

   (14:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 84-S.Hill pushed ob at BUF 32 for 45 yards (26-J.Rogers).

   +13pp

   NYJ