Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 15:00·NE 27, BUF 21

   (15:00) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 10.

   +17pp

   NWE
2. 2
   Q2 · 5:46·NE 7, BUF 7

   (5:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.

   +12pp

   BUF
3. 3
   Q1 · 8:57·NE 0, BUF 0

   (8:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski to BUF 26 for 41 yards (26-J.Rogers). Caught at BUF 32, slanting to sideline.

   +12pp

   NWE
4. 4
   Q2 · 1:19·NE 7, BUF 14

   (1:19) (Shotgun) 28-C.Spiller up the middle to NE 1 for 3 yards (55-B.Spikes). FUMBLES (55-B.Spikes), RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at NE 2. 75-V.Wilfork to NE 4 for 2 yards (14-R.Fitzpatrick).

   +12pp

   NWE
5. 5
   Q2 · 9:51·NE 7, BUF 6

   (9:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 84-S.Chandler for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in coverage in front corner of end zone.

   +11pp

   BUF