Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q3 · 4:01·BUF 21, NE 20

   (4:01) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 82-R.Martin INTERCEPTED by 29-S.Moore at BUF 30. 29-S.Moore to BUF 25 for 5 yards (82-R.Martin).

   +19pp

   NWE
2. 2
   Q3 · 8:32·BUF 21, NE 17

   (8:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 42-B.Green-Ellis to BUF 20 for 53 yards (26-J.Rogers). NE 12-Brady 5,101 pass yards this season, passing Dan Marino's 1984 total.

   +17pp

   NWE
3. 3
   Q4 · 12:16·BUF 21, NE 28

   (12:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 28-C.Spiller INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 15. 32-D.McCourty to BUF 47 for 38 yards (76-C.Rinehart).

   +12pp

   NWE
4. 4
   Q2 · 5:49·BUF 21, NE 13

   (5:49) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 81-A.Hernandez for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 5,004 pass yards this season, 3rd player in NFL history with a 5,000-yard season (4th occurrence). NE 12-Brady 32nd straight regular season game with a TD pass, 4th-longest all-time.

   +12pp

   NWE
5. 5
   Q1 · 11:33·BUF 0, NE 0

   (11:33) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep middle to 80-D.Hagan. PENALTY on NE-27-A.Molden, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play.

   +11pp

   BUF