Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q3 · 11:40·BUF 15, JAX 10

   (11:40) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 81-T.Owens for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +25pp

   BUF
2. 2
   Q1 · 4:24·BUF 3, JAX 3

   (4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short right intended for 81-T.Holt INTERCEPTED by 37-G.Wilson (43-B.Scott) at JAX 36. 37-G.Wilson to JAX 9 for 27 yards (80-M.Thomas).

   +20pp

   BUF
3. 3
   Q4 · 3:59·BUF 15, JAX 10

   (3:59) 9-D.Garrard pass short left to 11-M.Sims-Walker to BUF 12 for 20 yards (37-G.Wilson).

   +19pp

   JAX
4. 4
   Q4 · 8:36·BUF 15, JAX 10

   (8:36) 9-D.Garrard scrambles up the middle to BUF 20 for 1 yard (51-P.Posluszny). FUMBLES (51-P.Posluszny), RECOVERED by BUF-91-Sp.Johnson at BUF 20. 91-Sp.Johnson to BUF 20 for no gain (32-M.Jones-Drew).

   +19pp

   BUF
5. 5
   Q2 · 6:31·BUF 6, JAX 10

   (6:31) 23-M.Lynch up the middle to JAX 34 for -1 yards (96-T.Knighton). FUMBLES (96-T.Knighton), RECOVERED by JAX-91-D.Harvey at JAX 34. 91-D.Harvey to JAX 34 for no gain (23-M.Lynch). BUF-23-M.Lynch was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

   +15pp

   JAX