Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q3 · 3:27·MIA 17, NE 22

   (3:27) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-R.Moss for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 140th career receiving TD (ties Owens for 2nd best all-time) and 141st career TD (6th best all-time). NE 81-Moss 63rd career 100-yard game, 2nd in NFL history (Jerry Rice 76). NE 12-Brady 214th career TD pass, ties John Brodie for 20th best all-time.

   +21pp

   NWE
2. 2
   Q1 · 10:58·MIA 0, NE 0

   (10:58) 7-C.Henne pass short right to 81-J.Haynos to NE 39 for 21 yards (30-B.McGowan). FUMBLES (30-B.McGowan), ball out of bounds at NE 39.

   +10pp

   MIA
3. 3
   Q1 · 13:41·MIA 0, NE 0

   (13:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 81-R.Moss INTERCEPTED by 21-V.Davis at MIA 7. 21-V.Davis to MIA 22 for 15 yards (83-W.Welker).

   +7pp

   MIA
4. 4
   Q3 · 7:18·MIA 10, NE 16

   (7:18) MIA 7-Henne now at QB. 7-C.Henne pass short left to 83-G.Camarillo to NE 2 for 12 yards (23-L.Bodden, 25-P.Chung).

   +7pp

   MIA
5. 5
   Q2 · 6:17·MIA 9, NE 10

   (6:17) MIA 6-White now at QB. (Shotgun) 34-R.Williams right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +7pp

   MIA