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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 3 of 2024

1
PHI15
at
NOR12

NOR peaked at 77% win probability, lost 15–12 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 23%.

77%
Peak WP
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2
CAR36
at
LVR22

LVR peaked at 61% win probability, lost 36–22 to CAR.CAR bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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3
DEN26
at
TAM7

TAM peaked at 57% win probability, lost 26–7 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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4
CHI16
at
IND21

CHI peaked at 54% win probability, lost 21–16 to IND.IND bottomed out at 46%.

54%
Peak WP
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5
MIA3
at
SEA24

MIA peaked at 51% win probability, lost 24–3 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 49%.

51%
Peak WP
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6
NWE3
at
NYJ24

NWE peaked at 50% win probability, lost 24–3 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 50%.

50%
Peak WP
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7
HOU7
at
MIN34

HOU peaked at 43% win probability, lost 34–7 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 57%.

43%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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