Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2023 season
BUF peaked at 89% win probability, lost 22–16 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 11%.
DEN peaked at 85% win probability, lost 17–16 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 15%.
LAC peaked at 84% win probability, lost 36–34 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 16%.
CAR peaked at 63% win probability, lost 24–10 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 37%.
NWE peaked at 58% win probability, lost 25–20 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 42%.
CHI peaked at 56% win probability, lost 38–20 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 44%.
IND peaked at 55% win probability, lost 31–21 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 45%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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