Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2018 season
1
97%
Peak WP
2
91%
Peak WP
3
NOR peaked at 70% win probability, lost 48–40 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 30%.
70%
Peak WP
4
TEN peaked at 67% win probability, lost 27–20 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 33%.
67%
Peak WP
5
62%
Peak WP
6
SFO peaked at 48% win probability, lost 24–16 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 52%.
48%
Peak WP
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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