Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2013 season
ARI peaked at 86% win probability, lost 27–24 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 14%.
MIN peaked at 85% win probability, lost 34–24 to DET.DET bottomed out at 15%.
CIN peaked at 83% win probability, lost 24–21 to CHI.CHI bottomed out at 17%.
WAS peaked at 75% win probability, lost 33–27 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 25%.
GNB peaked at 66% win probability, lost 34–28 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 34%.
LVR peaked at 65% win probability, lost 21–17 to IND.IND bottomed out at 35%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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