Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2012 season
JAX peaked at 86% win probability, lost 26–23 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 14%.
NYG peaked at 70% win probability, lost 24–17 to DAL.DAL bottomed out at 30%.
GNB peaked at 69% win probability, lost 30–22 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 31%.
TEN peaked at 67% win probability, lost 34–13 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 33%.
NOR peaked at 64% win probability, lost 40–32 to WAS.WAS bottomed out at 36%.
CIN peaked at 46% win probability, lost 44–13 to BAL.BAL bottomed out at 54%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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