Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2011 season
MIN peaked at 81% win probability, lost 24–17 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 19%.
CLE peaked at 80% win probability, lost 27–17 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 20%.
NYG peaked at 76% win probability, lost 28–14 to WAS.WAS bottomed out at 24%.
LAR peaked at 73% win probability, lost 31–13 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 27%.
MIA peaked at 71% win probability, lost 38–24 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 29%.
NOR peaked at 49% win probability, lost 42–34 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 51%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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