Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2000 season
CAR peaked at 100% win probability, lost 20–17 to WAS.WAS bottomed out at 0%.
TEN peaked at 100% win probability, lost 16–13 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 0%.
GNB peaked at 75% win probability, lost 20–16 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 25%.
DAL peaked at 55% win probability, lost 41–14 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 45%.
ARI peaked at 45% win probability, lost 21–16 to NYG.NYG bottomed out at 55%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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