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Head Linesmanalso: Down Judge

Steve Stelljes

61 games4 seasons (20152018)Recent: Week 17, 2018

Scoring

How high or low his games run

Slight Under lean: games trend a bit lower-scoring than the market expects.

% Games Over the Total

44%

-5.1pp

league 49% · 55 priced games

Avg Total Points

44.3

-1.3

league 45.6 · both teams combined

Spread Outcomes

Who covers the line in his games

Mild lean visible in spread outcomes: interesting context, not a green-light edge.

Favorites Cover %

47%

-1.7pp

league 49% · 55 priced games

Home Teams Cover %

53%

+4.0pp

league 49% · home-vs-road tilt

Penalties & Pace

How the crew calls + paces the game

Average penalty + pace signals overall. Flags hit the road team noticeably more.

Penalties / Game

13.7

+1.1

league 12.6 · both teams combined

Plays / Game

122.4

+0.8

league 121.6 · pass + rush attempts

Penalty Yards / Game

122

+16

league 106

Penalties: home vs road

Home
6.3
Road
7.4

Road team gets flagged 0.7 more times than the home team (vs league -0.4).

Recent Games Worked

FAV covered · DOG covered · OVER hit · UNDER hit · PUSH

Source: nflverse officials release joined to games. Vegas-controlled signals use the betting market as matchup adjustment. Penalty + plays averages limited to 2012+ when per-team box data is available. Sample-size floor: 30 games.