New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Week 4 2026

Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 1:14·NE 29, BUF 26

   (1:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).

   +27pp

   NWE
2. 2
   Q2 · 0:16·NE 14, BUF 14

   (:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson).

   +20pp

   BUF
3. 3
   Q4 · 1:55·NE 27, BUF 26

   (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +19pp

   NWE
4. 4